Summary of Our Method
New Era Reports and Analyzes world news and global politics from the framework of cultural history, demography, geographical constraints (geopolitics) and from the framework of philosophical and theological analysis including the various ways that religious and political leaders, and their ideologies and ideas influence world history, impact political decisions and inhibit or advance local, regional and global initiatives. Analysis of these factors enables us to understand political actions and to accurately extrapolate future trends. By integrally discerning the political-economic-social-spiritual ramifications implicit in these interrelated “signs of the times”, New Era provides robust Daily World News, insightful Quarterly Forecasts and in depth Weekly Intelligence Reports.
New Era Methodology
Theopolitical global intelligence is oriented toward understanding the underlying and oftentimes hidden or deeper causes of global events well enough to extrapolate a residual effect prior to its actualization. Intelligence forecasting involves more than simple reporting of isolated newsworthy events. Unlike news reporting, intelligence forecasting involves spiritual maturity and awareness of diverse philosophical, theological and political perspectives, as well as knowledge and understanding of historical occurrences that color the news and either increase or decrease its veracity and reliability depending on the mastery of these interrelated variables.
Intelligence forecasting begins with daily global information gathering but quickly moves to verification (by multi-variable sampling) followed by data analysis that facilitates comparison and contrast of divergent news sources (liberal, conservative, moderate, ultra-liberal, ultra-conservative, orthodox and heterodox) and then synthesis facilitated by philosophical, political, geopolitical, historical, and cultural inputs including religious inputs, including openness to the possibility of divine providence (especially when there is reason to believe it is ordaining rather than permissive and that human beings are co-participating). Intelligence processing proceeds with logical judgment culminating in an hypothesis that directs further research necessary to either reject or affirm the hypothesis. If the former. valuable information is provided, but no forecast is forthcoming. If the latter occurs, intelligence forecasting proceeds with presumed accuracy and predictive validity.
Summary of Intelligence Hierarchy
- Broad Spectrum Information Gathering (the news-knowledge)
- Verification (veracity – did it really happen and did it really happen as reported)
- Analysis (what are the components and the meaning of each piece in itself)
- Comparison and Contrast (comparison of divergent source materials to facilitate Propositional Judgement – that is how well is each variable understood in itself when related to other diverse units of data)
- Synthesis (making sense of all the data as a whole) assisted by
- Philosophical, Historical, Political, Psychological and Theological Inputs including the possibility that some people act from higher motives; human action is not fully understood by defaulting to a model of self-interest, practical utilitarian calculation or sentient manipulation or a combination of the two
- Logical Judgment (what does each piece mean in relationship to others and as a synthetic whole does it make logical sense-can it be built step by step into a logical conclusion that arises out of the variables by the rational work of the human mind)
- Hypothesis Generated
- Research to negate or affirm hypothesis
- Forecasting (If the individual components are well understood and the derived hypothesis is logical and verified by further research, a logical forecast should be forthcoming. If not both logical and verified, something has been misunderstood, the whole process is skewed (biased), or a variable is missing. If any one or all of these latter 3 apply, forecasting is likely to be inaccurate and the hypotheses should be rejected or, if warranted archived for further future research.